I'm on study break so I don't have time to type my own response yet, but I will later. Cheers.
Quicksilver wrote:I'm not particularly inclined either way. Each outcome seems unlikely but not to the point where I'd be shocked to see either happen, for a variety of reasons, particularly since there are so many unknown variables at play. For example, apparently newaza is declining in prominence in Judo, however none of the clubs at which I train or have trained give the impression of disregarding it at all, so clearly matters like this vary significantly from club to club; though as a theoretical discussion we're dealing with two arts in practice it is about two people and there are more variables involved with that than I have time to list; the outcome could also be influenced by how much the players know about each other and their attitudes towards each art (if the Judo black belt in the first scenario knew that the person he or she was facing was a BJJ practitioner with no training in Judo it might be enough to make him or her complacent, which could work in the BJJ practitioner's favor, and visa versa); and so on.
Anyhow, it's an interesting question, and I'm curious to see how this topic and associated poll develops. It would also be interesting to have some actual data against which we may compare results to see just how realistically-based or otherwise peoples perceptions are, but I really doubt such data is available and if it was that in itself would probably be cause for mild concern.